segunda-feira, 3 de agosto de 2009

A DIVISÃO DO IRÃ PÕE EM RISCO A REPÚBLICA ISLÂMICA

Nos célebres “julgamentos de Moscou” da era estalinista, alguns dos principais chefes comunistas confessaram os crimes mais incríveis. Ninguém duvidava que, por traz destas revelações, existisse todo um eficiente “programa” de torturas.
Algo semelhante pode estar acontecendo em Teerã.
No julgamento de 10 líderes das manifestações contra o resultado das eleições, dois deles, Muhamad Abthai, ex-vice presidente, e Muhamad Atrianfar, ex-vice ministro do interior admitiram : sabiam que a vitória de Ahmadinejad fora limpa e conspiraram para conseguir sua anulação.
Para Moussawy, essas confissões foram obtidas depois de 50 dias de torturas medievais, configurando-se um procedimento “anti-islâmico e uma simulação.” Ele lembrou o caráter e o passado dos acusados, que prestaram grandes serviços ao país e o sistema.
A esposa de Abtahi, Fahimed Mousavinejad, garantiu que a confissão de seu marido era falsa: “As coisas que ele disse publicadas pela Fars (agência de notícias local) não eram no estilo de Abtahi”.
Por sua vez, o moderado ex-presidente Khatami disse :”O julgamento no sábado foi um show e as confissões são inválidas. O que foi chamado de “julgamento” foi uma violação da Constiotuição.” E acrescentou um argumento muito sério :”O problema mais importante do processo do julgamento é que ele não se realizou em sessão aberta. Os advogados e réus não foram informados do conteúdo das acusações antes do julgamento.”
Finalmente, um importante político conservador, Mohse Razaci, exigiu que fossem processados também aqueles que atacaram os manifestantes.
O governo não contestou essas afirmações. Limitou-se a ameaçar de prisão quem criticasse os julgamentos. E acusou (sem provas) que muitos deles mantiveram reuniões com agentes estrangeiros, especialmente ingleses.
Até agora, os grupos que mandam no Irã tem se recusado a fazer qualquer concessão. Pelo contrário : insistem em tratar os oposicionistas com mão pesada. Ameaçam, prendem, atiram, possivelmente torturam. Atacam a honra de figuras com passado respeitável e serviços significativos á república islâmica. E esse julgamento começa recheado de suspeitas sobre sua correção.
O resultado é que a república islâmica acha-se irremediavelmente dividida. E no momento mais inconveniente quando setembro se aproxima, o prazo de Obama para se iniciarem as negociações sobre o programa nuclear iraniano. As perspectivas são de que os Estados Unidos não admitirão que o programa iraniano seja pacífico e exijam a interrupção da produção do urânio puro. Forçado por exigências da política interna, Obama mudou de postura e certamente virá com ameaças de retaliações muito mais severas do que as que já foram aplicadas.
Um Irã unido, fortalecido por uma boa imagem internacional, poderia fazer frente a esta ofensiva, propondo intensas supervisões pela insuspeita Agência Internacional de Energia Atômica, que aliás é favorável a esta tese. Seria uma alternativa capaz de ser aceita, especialmente por que teria a seu favor a China e a Rússia.
Um Irã dividido, tendo cerca da metade da população em revolta contra os chefões, com a imagem suja pelos episódios pós-eleitorais, pouca chance terá de ver seu pleito aceito. E aí a pergunta que fica é : nesse contexto, que chances terá a república islâmica de sobreviver ?

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